Imports at major US container ports are projected to remain below last year’s levels during the first half of 2026 as retailers navigate continued tariff uncertainty, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. Analysts also note that it is too early to determine whether the recent conflict in Iran will affect global supply chains.
The report indicates that ongoing shifts in US trade policy are complicating planning for retailers and other businesses that rely on international imports. Although the US Supreme Court recently ruled against the administration’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), additional tariff measures are still being introduced or considered.
Following the court’s decision, President Donald Trump announced a temporary 150-day tariff of 10% under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, with the administration indicating the rate could rise to 15%. Officials are also considering launching new Section 301 trade investigations that could lead to further tariffs. NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said the evolving policy landscape continues to create uncertainty for the retail sector.
“The need for clear and predictable trade policy remains, and long-term planning continues to be difficult for merchants and other businesses,” Gold said. He added that although tariffs can be used strategically, they can also raise costs for businesses and consumers.
The report also notes that it is too soon to measure any direct impact from the conflict in Iran on US container imports. According to Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett, relatively little containerized cargo destined for the United States originates from the region. However, prolonged instability could influence global economic conditions.
“Increasing oil and gasoline prices could drive structural inflation if the conflict persists,” Hackett said. “That, in turn, could squeeze consumer discretionary spending and US manufacturing and ultimately reduce import volumes over time.”
United States ports tracked by the report handled approximately 2.08 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in January, a standard measurement representing a 20-foot shipping container or its equivalent. The total was 3.8% higher than December but down 6.4% compared with January 2025.
Global Port Tracker estimates February imports at 2.01 million TEU, a year-over-year decline of 1.3%. March is forecast at 1.91 million TEU, down 11.2%, followed by April at 2.03 million TEU, down 8.1%. Imports are expected to rebound modestly in May and June, reaching 2.09 million TEU and 2.1 million TEU, respectively, reflecting year-over-year increases partly due to weaker volumes during those months in 2025 after tariffs announced in April 2025 led to a sharp drop in imports.
Overall, the first half of 2026 is projected to total 12.21 million TEU, a 2.5% decrease from the 12.53 million TEU recorded during the same period in 2025. For the full year, US container imports totaled 25.4 million TEU in 2025, slightly below the 25.5 million TEU recorded in 2024. OM